Infrastructure Week, August 2025

What’s the pulse as we close out summer? Inflation and tariffs are driving costs higher for both households and small businesses, even as sales show a modest rebound - check out more below! 👇

🌐 Lender Econ – August 2025

CPI & PPI Both Tick Upward

Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% in July, up slightly from June’s 0.2%. Producer Price Index (PPI) climbed 0.9%, with goods up 0.7% and services up 1.1%. These stronger-than-expected inflation gains add pressure to the Fed’s rate-cut outlook.
👉 Lender takeaway: Rising costs may be squeezing borrower profits

Tariffs Tighten the Screws

New tariffs are now in effect, adding cost pressure to already strained supply chains. Import-heavy businesses are feeling it first, especially where they can’t easily pass costs on to customers. Analysts warn the impact will deepen into Q4.
👉 Lender takeaway: Trade-dependent small businesses may be hit hardest, making it tougher to hire, grow, or repay loans

Small Business Sentiment: Sales Rebound, Hiring Still Tight

After a period of decline, small business sales showed signs of recovery in July. Demand is holding up, but hiring challenges remain:

Sales up 1.0% month over month (July), 3.6% year over year (vs. July 2024)
57% of firms reported hiring or trying to hire
33% had open positions they couldn’t fill — the lowest share in 4+ years
👉 Lender takeaway: Sales momentum is encouraging, but labor shortages limit growth and strain operations

📖 Ned Reading List - August 2025

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